Essex County vs. Vermont Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Essex County: 2022 Population = 5,994 2022 Percent of State = 0.93% Vermont: 2022 Population = 647,064 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.19% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Essex County with comparisons to Vermont and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Essex County vs. Vermont's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Essex County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Essex County's population rose from 5,475 in 1969 to 5,994 in 2022, for a net gain of 519, or 9.48%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Vermont's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Vermont's population rose from 437,000 in 1969 to 647,064 in 2022, for a net gain of 210,064, or 48.07%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Essex County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Vermont, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Essex County's overall population growth was 9.48% over 1969-2022 trailed Vermont's increase of 48.07%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Vermont Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Essex County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Vermont's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Vermont's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Essex County's population totaled 1.25% of Vermont's population, while in 2022 it equated to 0.93% thereby yielding a -0.33% share-shift.
Essex County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Essex County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Essex County's population grew at an annual rate of 0.19% over 1970-2022. The county recorded its highest growth in 1974 (6.65%) and posted its lowest growth in 1978 (-5.47%). In 2022, Essex County's population grew by 0.49% Essex County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again illustrates the annual percent change in Essex County's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Essex County's annual population growth rate averaged 1.03%. It averaged 0.66% throughout the 1980s, 0.06% in the 1990s, -0.21% in the 2000s, -0.60% in the 2010s, 0.21% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Essex County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Vermont and the nation. As the chart reveals, Essex County's average annual population growth recorded under Vermont's average during the 1970s (1.03% vs. 1.47%), amounted to less than Vermont's average during the 1980s (0.66% vs. 0.98%), trailed Vermont's average throughout the 1990s (0.06% vs. 0.81%), lagged Vermont's average in the 2000s (-0.21% vs. 0.33%), recorded under Vermont's average throughout the 2010s (-0.60% vs. 0.27%), and amounted to less than Vermont's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.21% vs. 0.27%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Essex County fell under the nation over the 1970s (1.03% vs. 1.10%), trailed the nation in the 1980s (0.66% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation in the 1990s (0.06% vs. 1.23%), fell below the nation over the 2000s (-0.21% vs. 0.95%), recorded underneath the nation throughout the 2010s (-0.60% vs. 0.74%), and recorded underneath the nation over 2020-2022 (0.21% vs. 0.31%).
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