Orleans County vs. Vermont Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Orleans County: 2022 Population = 27,666 2022 Percent of State = 4.28% Vermont: 2022 Population = 647,064 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.19% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Orleans County with comparisons to Vermont and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Orleans County vs. Vermont's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks Orleans County's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Orleans County's population rose from 20,008 in 1969 to 27,666 in 2022, for a net gain of 7,658, or 38.27%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 tracks Vermont's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Vermont's population rose from 437,000 in 1969 to 647,064 in 2022, for a net gain of 210,064, or 48.07%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays Orleans County's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Vermont, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Orleans County's overall population growth was 38.27% over 1969-2022 trailed Vermont's increase of 48.07%, and fell below the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Vermont Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Orleans County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Vermont's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Vermont's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Orleans County's population totaled 4.58% of Vermont's population, while in 2022 it equated to 4.28% thereby yielding a -0.30% share-shift.
Orleans County Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 displays the short-run pattern of Orleans County's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Orleans County's population grew at an annual rate of 0.62% over 1970-2022. The county posted its highest growth in 1976 (2.67%) and recorded its lowest growth in 2016 (-0.92%). In 2022, Orleans County's population grew by 0.24% Orleans County Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again depicts the annual percent change in Orleans County's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Orleans County's annual population growth rate averaged 1.69%. It averaged 0.07% during the 1980s, 0.91% throughout the 1990s, 0.45% throughout the 2000s, 0.05% during the 2010s, 0.36% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Orleans County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Vermont and the nation. As the chart reveals, Orleans County's average annual population growth recorded above Vermont's average during the 1970s (1.69% vs. 1.47%), lagged Vermont's average throughout the 1980s (0.07% vs. 0.98%), topped Vermont's average throughout the 1990s (0.91% vs. 0.81%), surpassed Vermont's average during the 2000s (0.45% vs. 0.33%), recorded under Vermont's average throughout the 2010s (0.05% vs. 0.27%), and recorded above Vermont's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.36% vs. 0.27%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Orleans County outgained the nation in the 1970s (1.69% vs. 1.10%), recorded underneath the nation in the 1980s (0.07% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation throughout the 1990s (0.91% vs. 1.23%), posted below the nation over the 2000s (0.45% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation over the 2010s (0.05% vs. 0.74%), and recorded above the nation over 2020-2022 (0.36% vs. 0.31%).
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