Metropolitan Vermont vs. Vermont Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Metropolitan Vermont: 2022 Population = 227,521 2022 Percent of State = 35.16% Vermont: 2022 Population = 647,064 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.19% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of Metropolitan Vermont with comparisons to Vermont and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing Metropolitan Vermont vs. Vermont's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 traces Vermont's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Vermont's population rose from 437,000 in 1969 to 647,064 in 2022, for a net gain of 210,064, or 48.07%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 portrays Metropolitan Vermont's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Vermont, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. Metropolitan Vermont's overall population growth was 74.21% over 1969-2022 outpaced Vermont's increase of 48.07%, and topped the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Vermont Total: 1969-2022 Figure 3. Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the population growth of Metropolitan Vermont is to trace its individual percentage contributions to Vermont's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 3. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Vermont's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, Metropolitan Vermont's population totaled 29.89% of Vermont's population, while in 2022 it equated to 35.16% thereby yielding a +5.28% share-shift.
Metropolitan Vermont Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 4. Figure 4 shows the short-run pattern of Metropolitan Vermont's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, Metropolitan Vermont's population grew at an annual rate of 1.05% over 1970-2022. Metropolitan Vermont recorded its highest growth in 1970 (3.12%) and posted its lowest growth in 2022 (0.18%). In 2022, Metropolitan Vermont's population grew by 0.18% Metropolitan Vermont Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 5. Over the past five decades some metropolitan regions have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 5 again depicts the annual percent change in Metropolitan Vermont's population since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, Metropolitan Vermont's annual population growth rate averaged 1.50%. It averaged 1.45% throughout the 1980s, 1.19% in the 1990s, 0.66% throughout the 2000s, 0.66% throughout the 2010s, 0.42% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 6. Figure 6 compares the decade average growth rates for Metropolitan Vermont noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Vermont and the nation. As the chart reveals, Metropolitan Vermont's average annual population growth recorded above Vermont's average throughout the 1970s (1.50% vs. 1.47%), registered above Vermont's average during the 1980s (1.45% vs. 0.98%), registered above Vermont's average in the 1990s (1.19% vs. 0.81%), recorded above Vermont's average during the 2000s (0.66% vs. 0.33%), exceeded Vermont's average during the 2010s (0.66% vs. 0.27%), and topped Vermont's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.42% vs. 0.27%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, Metropolitan Vermont outpaced the nation throughout the 1970s (1.50% vs. 1.10%), surpassed the nation throughout the 1980s (1.45% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation over the 1990s (1.19% vs. 1.23%), posted below the nation in the 2000s (0.66% vs. 0.95%), trailed the nation in the 2010s (0.66% vs. 0.74%), and outgained the nation over 2020-2022 (0.42% vs. 0.31%).
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