Burlington-South Burlington MSA vs. Vermont Comparative Trends Analysis: Population Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction Burlington-South Burlington MSA: 2022 Population = 227,521 2022 Percent of State = 0.08% Vermont: 2022 Population = 647,064 2022 Percent of U.S. = 0.19% Attracting and retaining people to live, work, raise a family, and retire underlies the economic vitality of any region. Population growth is both a cause--and a consequence--of economic growth. Patterns of population growth and change reflect differences among regions to attract and retain people both as producers and consumers in their economy. The following graphs offer a broad overview of trends in the pattern of population growth and change of the Burlington-South Burlington MSA with comparisons to Vermont and the nation at large. This analysis features alternative approaches toward discussing, diagnosing and comparing the Burlington-South Burlington MSA vs. Vermont's population growth over 1969-2022. The data used are those compiled by the Regional Income and Product Divisions of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 1. Figure 1 tracks the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's population rose from 130,602 in 1969 to 227,521 in 2022, for a net gain of 96,919, or 74.21%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces Vermont's annual population for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate population patterns over time. During this 54-year period, Vermont's population rose from 437,000 in 1969 to 647,064 in 2022, for a net gain of 210,064, or 48.07%. NOTE: The county and state population totals reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) are from the Bureau of Census midyear (July 1) estimates. These estimates may differ from those prepared independently in some states by various agencies and/or universities. Population Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's population growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Vermont, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's population in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the populations in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in population growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The Burlington-South Burlington MSA's overall population growth was 74.21% over 1969-2022 outpaced Vermont's increase of 48.07%, and outpaced the United States' increase of 65.57%. Population as a Percent of the Vermont Total: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Another interesting and insightful way of contrasting the population growth of the Burlington-South Burlington MSA is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Vermont's statewide population over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's population grew faster, or declined less, than Vermont's population, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly. In 1969, the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's population totaled 29.89% of Vermont's population, while in 2022 it comprised 35.16% thereby yielding a +5.28% share-shift.
Burlington-South Burlington MSA Population: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's population growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's population grew at an annual rate of 1.05% over 1970-2022. The Burlington-South Burlington MSA recorded its highest growth in 1970 (3.12%) and recorded its lowest growth in 2022 (0.18%). In 2022, the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's population grew by 0.18% Burlington-South Burlington MSA Population: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some msas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's population since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's annual population growth rate averaged 1.50%. It averaged 1.45% throughout the 1980s, 1.19% throughout the 1990s, 0.66% in the 2000s, 0.66% throughout the 2010s, 0.42% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Population Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the Burlington-South Burlington MSA noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Vermont and the nation. As the chart reveals, the Burlington-South Burlington MSA's average annual population growth outperformed Vermont's average in the 1970s (1.50% vs. 1.47%), registered above Vermont's average during the 1980s (1.45% vs. 0.98%), registered above Vermont's average during the 1990s (1.19% vs. 0.81%), outpaced Vermont's average in the 2000s (0.66% vs. 0.33%), exceeded Vermont's average throughout the 2010s (0.66% vs. 0.27%), and topped Vermont's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (0.42% vs. 0.27%). Finally, relative to nationwide population growth trends, the Burlington-South Burlington MSA exceeded the nation throughout the 1970s (1.50% vs. 1.10%), led the nation over the 1980s (1.45% vs. 0.95%), fell under the nation throughout the 1990s (1.19% vs. 1.23%), fell below the nation over the 2000s (0.66% vs. 0.95%), posted below the nation during the 2010s (0.66% vs. 0.74%), and outperformed the nation over 2020-2022 (0.42% vs. 0.31%).
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