Chittenden County vs. Vermont
Comparative Trends Analysis:
Total Employment Growth and Change, 1969-2018
Introduction
Chittenden County:
2018 Jobs = 138,066
2018 Percent of State = 31.3%
Vermont:
2018 Jobs = 440,670
2018 Percent of State = 0.2%
Employment numbers remain the most popular and frequently cited statistics used for tracking local area economic conditions and trends. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) employment estimates reported measure the number of full- and part-time wage and salary employees, plus the number of proprietors of unincorporated businesses. People holding more than one job are counted in the employment estimates for each job they hold. This means BEA employment estimates represent a job count, not a people count. Also, BEA employment is by place-of-work, rather than by place-of-residence. Jobs held by neighboring county residents who commute to Chittenden County to work are included in the employment count for Chittenden County.
Data Definition:
The BEA employment series for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, full-time plus part-time, by place of work. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted at equal weight. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included, but unpaid family workers and volunteers are not included. Proprietors employment consists of the number of sole proprietorships and the number of partners in partnerships. The description "by place of work" applies to the wage and salary portion of the series and, with relatively little error, to the entire series. The proprietors employment portion of the series, however, is more nearly by place of residence because, for nonfarm sole proprietorships, the estimates are based on IRS tax data that reflect the address from which the proprietor's individual tax return is filed, which is usually the proprietor's residence. The nonfarm partnership portion of the proprietors employment series reflects the tax-filing address of the partnership, which may be either the residence of one of the partners or the business address of the partnership. The employment estimates are designed to be consistent with the estimates of wages and salaries and proprietors' income that are part of the personal income series. The employment estimates are based on the same sets of source data as the corresponding earnings estimates and are prepared with parallel methodologies. Two forms of proprietors' income-the income of limited partnerships and the income of tax-exempt cooperatives-have no corresponding employment estimates.
Total Employment, 1969-2018
Total Employment, 1969-2018
Figure 1.
Figure 1 tracks Chittenden County's annual total employment for the period 1969-2018 to illustrate total employment patterns over time. During this 50-year period, Chittenden County's total employment rose from 47,540 in 1969 to 138,066 in 2018, for a net gain of 90,526, or 190.4%.
Total Employment, 1969-2018
Total Employment, 1969-2018
Figure 2.
Figure 2 traces Vermont's annual total employment for the period 1969-2018 to illustrate total employment patterns over time. During this 50-year period, Vermont's total employment rose from 202,578 in 1969 to 440,670 in 2018, for a net gain of 238,092, or 117.5%.
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2018
Total Employment Indices (1969=100): 1969-2018
Figure 3.
Figure 3 shows Chittenden County's total employment growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Vermont, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's total employment in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the total employments in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in total employment growth between regions that may differ vastly in size.
Chittenden County's overall total employment growth was 190.4% over 1969-2018 outpaced Vermont's increase of 117.5%, and topped the United States' increase of 120.5%.
Total Employment as a Percent of the Vermont Total: 1969-2018
Total Employment as a Percent of the Vermont Total: 1969-2018
Figure 4.
Another interesting and insightful way of highlighting the total employment growth of Chittenden County is to compare its individual percentage contributions to Vermont's statewide total employment over time, as shown in Figure 4. A rising share means a region's total employment grew faster, or declined less, than Vermont's total employment, while a declining share shows it grew more slowly.
In 1969, Chittenden County's total employment comprised 23.5% of Vermont's total employment, while in 2018 it comprised 31.3% thereby yielding a +7.9% share-shift.
   
 
Total Employment Share-Shift
2018 vs. 1969
 
Share-
Shift*
 
2018
vs.
1969
+7.86%
=
31.33%
-
23.47%
 
   
Chittenden County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2018
Chittenden County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change, 1970-2018
Figure 5.
Figure 5 shows the short-run pattern of Chittenden County's total employment growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2018. The average annual percent change for the entire 49-year period is also illustrated on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average.
On average, Chittenden County's total employment grew at an annual rate of 2.22% over 1970-2018. The county posted its highest growth in 1978 (9.08%) and recorded its lowest growth in 1991 (-2.10%). In 2018, Chittenden County's total employment grew by 0.77%
Chittenden County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2018
Chittenden County Total Employment:
Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2018
Figure 6.
Over the past five decades some counties have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again shows the annual percent change in Chittenden County's total employment since 1970, but this time they are overlayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, and 2010-2018.
During the 1970s, Chittenden County's annual total employment growth rate averaged 3.24%. It averaged 4.27% in the 1980s, 1.44% during the 1990s, 0.81% throughout the 2000s, and 1.26% thus far this decade (2010 to 2018).
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change by Decade
Figure 7.
Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for Chittenden County noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Vermont and the nation. As the chart reveals, Chittenden County's average annual total employment growth registered above Vermont's average throughout the 1970s (3.24% vs. 2.57%), surpassed Vermont's average throughout the 1980s (4.27% vs. 2.74%), outgained Vermont's average in the 1990s (1.44% vs. 1.35%), topped Vermont's average in the 2000s (0.81% vs. 0.62%), and outperformed Vermont's average over the 9 year period of the last decade, 2010-2018 (1.26% vs. 0.69%).
Finally, relative to nationwide total employment growth trends, Chittenden County led the nation in the 1970s (3.24% vs. 2.21%), led the nation over the 1980s (4.27% vs. 1.88%), fell under the nation over the 1990s (1.44% vs. 1.73%), exceeded the nation during the 2000s (0.81% vs. 0.74%), and lagged the nation over 2010-2018 (1.26% vs. 1.63%).
   
 
Total Employment Growth:
Average Annual Percent Change
 
 
 
2.22
3.24
4.27
1.44
0.81
1.26
0.77
 
1.61
2.57
2.74
1.35
0.62
0.69
0.84
 
1.64
2.21
1.88
1.73
0.74
1.63
1.99
 
   
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2018
Job Ratios (Employment/Population): 1969-2018
Figure 8.
The job ratios shown in Figure 8 for Chittenden County, Vermont and the nation not only portray a number of important trends, they also serves as a thumbnail guide to evaluating an economy's capacity to generate enough jobs fast enough to absorb the increasing number of workers attendant to a growing population. The job ratio is the number of full-time and part-time jobs by place of work, divided by population.
Nationally, the job ratio rose from 0.45 to 0.61 between 1969 and 2018. Chittenden County's job ratio registered 0.49 in 1969, and 0.84 in 2018. Underlying the rising job ratio over the past several decades have been the increases in the labor force participation rates, with the number and proportion of women in the labor market playing a leading role.
An assortment of other factors can contribute to regional differences in the job ratio. They include differences in the proportion of elderly and retirees who no longer work and participate in the labor force, differences in the number and proportion of part-time vs. full-time workers, differences in industry composition, and differences in age and sex distribution and degree of urbanization. Also, a disproportionate number of workers commuting to work outside a county tends to lower its local county job ratio, while a net inflow of workers commuting to work inside the county tends to augment its local county job ratio.
Avoid interpreting the job ratio as the fraction (or percent) of the local population employed. This interpretation should only apply to the "employment-population ratio" statistic compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the Current Population Survey (CPS).
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2018
Job Ratios (Employment/Population)
as a Percent of the U.S. Average:
1969-2018
Figure 9.
To highlight trends in a local job ratio relative to nationwide trends, Figure 9 tracks Chittenden County's, Vermont's job ratio as a percent of the national job ratio over 1969-2018.

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Chittenden County:
Total Employment, 1969-2018
 
1969
 
47,540
100.0
N
23.47
0.49
109.30
1970
 
49,427
104.0
3.97
24.11
0.50
110.62
1971
 
49,339
103.8
-0.18
23.98
0.48
108.86
1972
 
49,737
104.6
0.81
23.55
0.48
105.79
1973
 
50,785
106.8
2.11
23.09
0.49
104.69
1974
 
51,336
108.0
1.08
23.10
0.49
104.22
1975
 
51,063
107.4
-0.53
23.18
0.48
104.71
1976
 
53,763
113.1
5.29
23.53
0.50
106.69
1977
 
56,328
118.5
4.77
23.82
0.51
107.35
1978
 
61,440
129.2
9.08
24.40
0.55
111.72
1979
 
65,108
137.0
5.97
24.98
0.58
114.17
1980
 
67,029
141.0
2.95
25.24
0.58
115.24
1981
 
69,954
147.1
4.36
25.91
0.60
119.05
1982
 
71,489
150.4
2.19
26.37
0.60
122.49
1983
 
73,518
154.6
2.84
26.50
0.61
124.01
1984
 
77,319
162.6
5.17
26.78
0.64
125.26
1985
 
82,048
172.6
6.12
27.34
0.67
128.89
1986
 
85,713
180.3
4.47
27.53
0.69
131.70
1987
 
89,718
188.7
4.67
27.99
0.72
133.84
1988
 
95,260
200.4
6.18
28.51
0.74
135.92
1989
 
98,871
208.0
3.79
28.98
0.76
137.13
1990
 
98,938
208.1
0.07
29.03
0.75
135.11
1991
 
96,858
203.7
-2.10
28.98
0.73
133.88
1992
 
97,978
206.1
1.16
28.67
0.73
135.71
1993
 
100,048
210.5
2.11
28.65
0.74
135.84
1994
 
102,597
215.8
2.55
28.62
0.74
135.23
1995
 
104,476
219.8
1.83
28.87
0.75
134.24
1996
 
107,376
225.9
2.78
29.25
0.76
135.58
1997
 
109,072
229.4
1.58
29.27
0.76
134.82
1998
 
111,353
234.2
2.09
29.23
0.77
134.83
1999
 
113,973
239.7
2.35
29.24
0.78
135.43
2000
 
118,478
249.2
3.95
29.55
0.81
137.37
2001
 
120,735
254.0
1.90
29.90
0.81
140.03
2002
 
119,874
252.2
-0.71
29.55
0.80
139.56
2003
 
119,825
252.1
-0.04
29.51
0.80
139.29
2004
 
122,533
257.7
2.26
29.66
0.81
140.31
2005
 
123,071
258.9
0.44
29.51
0.81
138.69
2006
 
123,988
260.8
0.75
29.45
0.81
137.61
2007
 
125,430
263.8
1.16
29.51
0.82
136.98
2008
 
125,411
263.8
-0.02
29.56
0.81
137.59
2009
 
123,380
259.5
-1.62
29.79
0.79
139.92
2010
 
124,518
261.9
0.92
30.13
0.79
142.09
2011
 
127,751
268.7
2.60
30.64
0.81
143.05
2012
 
130,167
273.8
1.89
30.86
0.82
143.86
2013
 
131,123
275.8
0.73
30.85
0.82
142.56
2014
 
133,187
280.2
1.57
31.05
0.83
142.35
2015
 
134,646
283.2
1.10
31.12
0.83
140.69
2016
 
135,792
285.6
0.85
31.30
0.84
140.44
2017
 
137,009
288.2
0.90
31.35
0.84
138.95
2018
 
138,066
290.4
0.77
31.33
0.84
136.73
Source: Calculations by the Vermont Regional Economic Analysis Project (VT-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2019
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
Vermont:
Total Employment, 1969-2018
 
1969
 
202,578
100.0
N
0.22
0.46
102.48
1970
 
205,015
101.2
1.20
0.22
0.46
102.56
1971
 
205,729
101.6
0.35
0.22
0.45
102.25
1972
 
211,203
104.3
2.66
0.22
0.46
101.17
1973
 
219,986
108.6
4.16
0.22
0.47
100.82
1974
 
222,240
109.7
1.02
0.22
0.47
100.09
1975
 
220,329
108.8
-0.86
0.22
0.46
100.02
1976
 
228,487
112.8
3.70
0.22
0.47
100.86
1977
 
236,484
116.7
3.50
0.23
0.48
100.52
1978
 
251,752
124.3
6.46
0.23
0.51
102.30
1979
 
260,666
128.7
3.54
0.23
0.52
102.30
1980
 
265,618
131.1
1.90
0.23
0.52
103.31
1981
 
269,992
133.3
1.65
0.23
0.52
104.57
1982
 
271,070
133.8
0.40
0.24
0.52
105.96
1983
 
277,388
136.9
2.33
0.24
0.53
107.16
1984
 
288,739
142.5
4.09
0.24
0.55
107.27
1985
 
300,062
148.1
3.92
0.24
0.57
108.80
1986
 
311,372
153.7
3.77
0.25
0.58
110.91
1987
 
320,497
158.2
2.93
0.25
0.59
110.95
1988
 
334,186
165.0
4.27
0.25
0.61
111.28
1989
 
341,223
168.4
2.11
0.25
0.61
110.89
1990
 
340,784
168.2
-0.13
0.25
0.60
108.88
1991
 
334,190
165.0
-1.93
0.24
0.59
108.05
1992
 
341,722
168.7
2.25
0.25
0.60
110.77
1993
 
349,250
172.4
2.20
0.25
0.60
111.61
1994
 
358,528
177.0
2.66
0.25
0.61
112.06
1995
 
361,825
178.6
0.92
0.24
0.61
110.59
1996
 
367,074
181.2
1.45
0.24
0.62
110.26
1997
 
372,613
183.9
1.51
0.24
0.62
110.07
1998
 
381,006
188.1
2.25
0.24
0.63
110.45
1999
 
389,726
192.4
2.29
0.24
0.64
111.34
2000
 
400,963
197.9
2.88
0.24
0.66
112.22
2001
 
403,836
199.3
0.72
0.24
0.66
113.56
2002
 
405,652
200.2
0.45
0.25
0.66
114.83
2003
 
406,050
200.4
0.10
0.24
0.66
114.91
2004
 
413,089
203.9
1.73
0.24
0.67
115.56
2005
 
417,100
205.9
0.97
0.24
0.67
115.13
2006
 
421,004
207.8
0.94
0.24
0.68
114.67
2007
 
425,032
209.8
0.96
0.24
0.68
114.37
2008
 
424,270
209.4
-0.18
0.24
0.68
115.34
2009
 
414,181
204.5
-2.38
0.24
0.66
117.11
2010
 
413,312
204.0
-0.21
0.24
0.66
118.14
2011
 
416,949
205.8
0.88
0.24
0.67
117.67
2012
 
421,809
208.2
1.17
0.24
0.67
118.15
2013
 
425,029
209.8
0.76
0.23
0.68
117.66
2014
 
428,938
211.7
0.92
0.23
0.69
117.29
2015
 
432,641
213.6
0.86
0.23
0.69
116.63
2016
 
433,808
214.1
0.27
0.22
0.70
116.22
2017
 
436,990
215.7
0.73
0.22
0.70
115.59
2018
 
440,670
217.5
0.84
0.22
0.70
114.67
Source: Calculations by the Vermont Regional Economic Analysis Project (VT-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2019
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PSN
 
   

Tip: To augment your analysis click on the column headers in the following table to rank and/or sort the data.

   
 
United States:
Total Employment, 1969-2018
 
1969
 
91,053,200
100.0
N
0.45
1970
 
91,277,600
100.2
0.25
0.45
1971
 
91,581,400
100.6
0.33
0.44
1972
 
94,312,200
103.6
2.98
0.45
1973
 
98,427,500
108.1
4.36
0.47
1974
 
100,111,800
109.9
1.71
0.47
1975
 
98,900,600
108.6
-1.21
0.46
1976
 
101,591,200
111.6
2.72
0.47
1977
 
105,042,200
115.4
3.40
0.48
1978
 
109,686,600
120.5
4.42
0.49
1979
 
113,147,100
124.3
3.15
0.50
1980
 
113,983,200
125.2
0.74
0.50
1981
 
114,914,000
126.2
0.82
0.50
1982
 
114,163,300
125.4
-0.65
0.49
1983
 
115,645,700
127.0
1.30
0.49
1984
 
120,528,100
132.4
4.22
0.51
1985
 
123,796,700
136.0
2.71
0.52
1986
 
126,232,300
138.6
1.97
0.53
1987
 
129,548,400
142.3
2.63
0.53
1988
 
133,563,900
146.7
3.10
0.55
1989
 
136,177,800
149.6
1.96
0.55
1990
 
138,330,900
151.9
1.58
0.55
1991
 
137,612,800
151.1
-0.52
0.54
1992
 
138,166,100
151.7
0.40
0.54
1993
 
140,774,400
154.6
1.89
0.54
1994
 
144,196,600
158.4
2.43
0.55
1995
 
147,915,800
162.4
2.58
0.56
1996
 
151,056,200
165.9
2.12
0.56
1997
 
154,541,200
169.7
2.31
0.57
1998
 
158,481,200
174.1
2.55
0.57
1999
 
161,531,300
177.4
1.92
0.58
2000
 
165,370,800
181.6
2.38
0.59
2001
 
165,522,200
181.8
0.09
0.58
2002
 
165,095,100
181.3
-0.26
0.57
2003
 
165,921,500
182.2
0.50
0.57
2004
 
168,839,700
185.4
1.76
0.58
2005
 
172,338,400
189.3
2.07
0.58
2006
 
175,868,600
193.1
2.05
0.59
2007
 
179,543,700
197.2
2.09
0.60
2008
 
179,213,900
196.8
-0.18
0.59
2009
 
173,636,700
190.7
-3.11
0.57
2010
 
172,901,700
189.9
-0.42
0.56
2011
 
176,091,700
193.4
1.84
0.57
2012
 
178,979,700
196.6
1.64
0.57
2013
 
182,325,100
200.2
1.87
0.58
2014
 
186,233,800
204.5
2.14
0.58
2015
 
190,315,800
209.0
2.19
0.59
2016
 
193,371,900
212.4
1.61
0.60
2017
 
196,825,300
216.2
1.79
0.61
2018
 
200,746,000
220.5
1.99
0.61
Source: Calculations by the Vermont Regional Economic Analysis Project (VT-REAP)
with data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
November 2019
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_PN
 
   
Copyright © 2020. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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